Forecasting the Digital Economic Indicators of the Republic of Uzbekistan Using Arima Models

Abstract

The digital economy in Uzbekistan has been gaining significant traction in recent years, driven by government initiatives aimed at transforming the national economy through the integration of digital technologies. In this article, the indicators of the digital economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan are forecasted using ARIMA models . First, the stationarity of the time series was checked and SARIMA (3; 2; 0) (1; 2; 0) 4 model is constructed. The significance of the model was assessed by MAPE , and the statistical significance of its parameters was assessed by Fisher's Z test. It was studied that the residuals obey the normal distribution law and that they do not have autocorrelation. As a result, a forecast until 2028 was developed.